Monday, April 26, 2010

Twins Need More Kubel

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire gave Jason Kubel the day off on Sunday following his 0-for-5 performance on Saturday against the Royals. It's tough to blame the skipper for such a lineup shift since Saturday's hit-less game dropped Kubel's batting average to an embarrassing .169. The Twins' normally reliable DH/Outfielder is mired in a season-long slump and has just two hits in his last 31 at bats--an .064 funk that has many observers shaking their heads in disbelief... including yours truly.

After all this is Kubel we're talking about here--the man affectionately known as "The Beast" among his peers. Kubel lived up to said moniker last year by hitting .300 with a .908 OPS, 28 home runs, and 103 RBI. He'll really need to turn things around at the plate in a hurry if he hopes to replicate those stats in 2010. Just how bad is it right now? Well, his current batting average is about 100 points worse than any one month average he registered in 2009 and he'll need to raise his batting average about 60 points in the next four games in order to avoid having his worst month at the plate since becoming a regular in the Twins lineup in 2007.  In other words, he'd have to go 2-for-4 each game between now and May so I'm not holding my breath. Indeed, I have benched Kubel on my fantasy team for the first time since 2008.

Kubel is striking out at a rate unprecedented for him. He is currently on pace to fan 143 times this season, which would be 40 more times than he did last year. Even more alarming is his ineffectiveness against fastballs. According to Inside Edge, Kubel hit .354 against fastballs last year -- the 13th best batting average against heaters amongst hitters with at least 300 at bats in 2009. This year, his batting average against fastballs has plummeted to .185. That's terrible compared to the league average of .290 and just plain inexplicable when compared to his prowess against fastballs in the past.

Per Inside Edge, Kubel's well-hit average against fastballs was a blistering .372 in 2009, which ranked second in the majors to his teammate Joe Mauer. Therein lies the glimmer of hope for Kubel busting out of his slump sometime soon. Kubel currently carries a .333 well-hit average against fastballs--a number very incongruous when compared to his low batting average. It seems he's making good contact against heaters, but they just aren't falling in for hits.

These sorts of things have a way of evening out over the course of a season, which leads me to believe the Twins will be getting more from Kubel in the very near future. Maybe that day off will do him some good and maybe, just maybe, I'll have more Kubel in my fantasy lineup next week.

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