BoKnowz Updates

I have several updates to report today.

First of all I have a handful of new articles and blog postings over at FoxSportsNorth.com:

An analysis of several player performances from around the majors in an attempt to decipher which ones are for real and which ones are not. Read the full article entitled "Trend or Mirage" over at FoxSportsNorth.com.

A look at the incredible start to the season that Ubaldo Jimemez has turned in. I examine his current pace and tell you what I would do if I owned him in a fantasy league and someone had the audacity to make me a trade offer for him. It's entitled "Unbelievable Ubaldo" and it's available exclusively at FoxSportsNorth.com.

Third, I examine the fanfare surrounding the upcoming debut this Tuesday (June 8) of Washington Nationals pitching phenom, Stephen Strasburg. Will he live up to the hype? Check out "Here Comes Strasburg" only at FoxSportsNorth.com.

Paul Allen of KFAN Radio in the Twin Cities has asked me to extend my role as a weekly in-studio contributor year-round. So the plan is for me to continue joining P.A. every Wednesday for an hour starting at 9:55 AM CT. We talk a lot of major league baseball, Twins baseball, and fantasy baseball, plus we take your phone calls. The show can be heard online at KFAN.com and you can listen to the replay of every show on their "FAN on Demand" page.

I also want to pass along that I will be conducting a free online chat this Thursday at 12 Noon Central Time, talking all things fantasy baseball and fantasy football.  I invite you to swing by FoxSportsNorth.com while you are eating lunch at your desk and pepper me with some questions.

We are still in the process of building up the fantasy page at FSN.com. My in-season fantasy baseball rankings and preseason fantasy football cheat sheets will be coming soon. I will be sure to post an announcement here when they are live on the site.

Hot Pickups

Fantasy baseball veterans know better than to rest on their laurels when they are in first place or sit and do nothing when their team is in the cellar. You should be constantly trolling the waters in your league's free agency pool looking for ways to improve your team.

This should be a daily, not monthly, exercise. Yeah, I know that sounds like a lot of work, but it's supposed to be fun ... besides, you DO want to win your league, don't you?

I have taken it upon myself to uncover some of the hottest pickups in fantasy baseball right now. I whittled it down to a top 10, including Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana, and published my findings (where else?) over at FoxSportsNorth,com. You can read the full article there, entitled "Hot Pickups."

Have I mentioned that you can find ALL my fantasy baseball and fantasy football analysis all in one place over at FoxSportsNorth.com? Do you get the sense I'm trying to push traffic toward the site?

You can also follow by FoxSportsNorth,com Tweets at http://twitter.com/FSNBoMitchell. It's a different Twitter account than the one that generates the feed found in the right hand column here at BoKnowz.com so I encourage you to check it out.

The Cardinal Rule

The most important thing to remember whenever you consider making a trade in fantasy baseball (or football, or basketball, or any fantasy sport for that matter) is to "Buy Low and Sell High." It seems pretty easy, but I swear if I had a nickel for every fantasy owner who has made a trade that directly violated that rule, I'd have enough cash to build a new Vikings stadium.

Thus, this week over at FoxSportsNorth.com, I did a two-part series of fantasy baseball articles designed to help owners identify which players were prime targets for buying low and which they should be considering selling high on.

Here are the links to the two articles from FoxSportsNorth.com: Buy Low and Sell High.

Fantasy Baseball Notes

In my latest fantasy baseball blog posts over at FoxSportsNorth.com, I examine the incredible season being turned in thus far by Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, who in addition to leading the league in batting average and slugging percentage, is getting on base at nearly a .500 clip.

Find out just how rare it is to reach base 50 percent of the time by reading the full article entitled "Morneau is Always on" over at FoxSportsNorth.com.

In addition, I take a look at the surprising Vladimir Guerrero and the incredible season he is having so far for the Rangers. I did some digging on his career numbers and let's just say you won't believe what I've uncovered. He is in elite Hall of Fame company ... don't act like you're not impressed.


Read the full article entitled "Vlad's Historic Pace" over at FoxSportsNorth.com.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch

Not unlike Orlando Hudson’s mouth, fantasy values are always in motion. The best owners maintain a finger on the pulse of the fantasy baseball stock market in order to gauge the best time to make a trade or lineup change. In order to assist you as you endeavor to extract the most from your fantasy season, I’ve identified some players who are currently experiencing significant fluctuations in their values.

Among the players I examine is the Mets Jason Bay, who went yard twice against the Yankees last night.

Visit FoxSportsNorth.com for the full article.

The New Gig

I've been away from BoKnowz.com for a few weeks, but I've got a good excuse.

FoxSportsNorth.com has hired me to be their Fantasy Sports Insider, so I will be pouring a majority of my efforts into that site from this point on. I still plan on keeping BoKnowz.com updated and fresh with news and observations. Moreover, you will be able to find easy links to all of the fantasy baseball content I produce for FSN.com right here at BoKnowz.com.

Keep this page bookmarked and stay tuned for more announcements coming soon!

Triple Crown Trivia

Entering the 2010 season the only player that was universally given any kind of chance of winning baseball's Triple Crown for hitting was the Cardinals Albert Pujols. Given his ability to hit for both average and power, we still can't rule out the possibility of Pujols becoming the first player to lead his league in batting average, home runs, and RBI since 1967 when the Red Sox Carl Yaztrzemski accomplished the rare feat. Yaz had one of 16 Triple Crown seasons in baseball history--and three of those occurred back in the 19th century. Hall of Famers Ted Williams (1942, 1947) and Rogers Hornsby (1922, 1925) are the only two players to pull off the hallowed trifecta more than once.

Entering play on Tuesday, however, an unlikely hitter is leading the Triple Crown charge in the National League: Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier, who leads the Senior Circuit with a .365 batting average, 26 RBI, and is tied for the league lead with nine home runs with two others. There are a few interesting things to note about Ethier's candidacy for the Crown.

First, he is not even considered the best hitter on his own team; that distinction is generally given to fellow outfielder Matt Kemp or the one and only Manny Ramirez. If you had told most baseball fans that a Dodgers hitter would be contending for the Triple Crown at any point this season, nine out of 10 would have guessed Kemp, not Ethier.

The other weird thing about Ethier's contention is that only one Triple Crown winner has ever played for a losing team--Chuck Klein for the 1933 Philadelphia Phillies--and the last three winners (Yazstrzemski, Frank Robinson, and Mickey Mantle) all played for first place teams. Yet Kemp's Dodgers are currently residing in last place in the N.L. West.

Do I think we need to seriously concern ourselves with Ethier making history by winning a Triple Crown for a last place squad? No, not at all. Ethier is a nice player, but I doubt he will finish in the top 10 of more than one of the Triple Crown categories when all is said and done. As for the Dodgers, they were my preseason pick to win the West, but something is seriously amiss with this team (read: pitching). Thus, while I don't think they'll wind up in last place, there's a far better chance of that happening than there is of anyone, even Pujols, winning a Triple Crown this season.

All-April Team

April baseball is in the books, or another way to look at it: the season is one-seventh of the way over. It's time to recognize those players who performed like All-Stars in the first month of the season and made their fantasy owners look like geniuses for drafting them... or in a few cases, picking them up out of free agency after the season had begun. You'll find a few All-Star regulars on the list below, but also some surprising names that few saw coming.

C Joe Mauer, Twins - The home runs aren't there yet, but despite the lack of power Mauer leads all catchers in batting average and runs scored and ranks second in RBI

1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals - Nice way to lead off the All-April team with the reigning MVPs. Sir Albert ranks second among all first basemen in batting average (.345) and home runs (7).

2B Robinson Cano, Yankees - Cano has been unconscious at the plate in recent weeks. He leads the big leagues with a .400 batting average and also ranks among the league leaders with eight home runs. 

3B Evan Longoria, Rays - There was no clear-cut dominant third baseman in April, but Longoria has a higher batting average than any third baseman East of Pablo Sandoval, plus more homers and RBI than the Panda and more runs scored (and stolen hats) than anyone at the hot corner.

SS Alex Gonzalez, Blue Jays - Those who say  they saw this coming are just flat-out lying. Gonzalez had an unprecedented month and currently leads all shortstops in home runs (7), RBI (19), and OPS (.946).

CI Paul Konerko, White Sox - Konerko has never had a month like this before, either. He leads the majors in home runs with 11 and leads all first basemen with a 1.197 OPS.

MI Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks - Our third straight surprising player, Johnson has already hit more homers in April (9) than he hit all of last year (8).

U Justin Morneau, Twins - With apologies to Miguel Cabrera, who leads the major leagues with 25 RBI, Morneau has a higher batting average, higher OPS, the same number of homers, and more runs scored than the Tigers slugger.

OF Ryan Braun, Brewers - An across the board stud in April, Braun ranks in the top-10 among outfielders in batting average, home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases, and OPS.

OF Vernon Wells, Blue Jays - Following a few lost years, Wells looks determined to earn the money in that fat contract of his. Wells is pacing all outfielders in homers (8) and runs scored (20).

OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers - Kemp hit "only" .278 in April, but had more home runs and runs scored than Ryan Braun and the same number of RBI.

OF Jose Guillen, Royals - One of the most surprising players of the year thus far, Guillen went from battling blood clots in his legs during the offseason to posting similar stats to Braun and Kemp in April.

SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies - All he's done so far is throw a no-hitter and win all five of his starts. Not a bad way to kick off the season.

SP Tim Lincecum, Giants - The reigning Cy Young award winner is facing some stiff competition for his crown so far, but still leads all pitchers with 43 strikeouts and has not lost a game.

SP Francisco Liriano, Twins - The magic of 2006 is back for the Twins filthy southpaw. Liriano leads the American League with a 0.93 ERA and has not allowed a run in his last 23 innings of work.

SP Mike Pelfrey, Mets - Adding a nasty split-finger fastball to his repertoire has helped Pelfrey fashion the best ERA in the majors (0.69) through the first month of the season.

SP Andy Pettitte, Yankees - Pettitte is off to the best start of his long and storied (and some would suggest Hall of Fame worthy) career: a 3-0 mark and a 2.12 ERA.

SP Matt Garza, Rays - Garza has four wins and ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. About that beard, though...

RP Matt Capps, Nationals - April baseball in a microcosm: his team was the worst in baseball last year yet he somehow leads the majors in saves (10) through one month. Weird.

RP Mariano Rivera, Yankees - Near perfection thus far. Rivera is seven-for-seven in saves, and in nine innings of work he has allowed just five base runners and ZERO runs.

Philly Mistake

I suppose you can surmise from the headline above that I am not exactly on board with the Phillies' decision to hand first baseman Ryan Howard a five-year, $125 million contract extension. Let me first say that I believe that, right now, Howard is one of the most feared hitters in the game. He is in exclusive company when it comes to hitting home runs and knocking in runs. If you have been following the story, you've probably seen the ESPN graphic by now that includes Howard on the list of four players in major league history who have slammed 40 homers and driven in 130 runs four straight seasons--a list that includes Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, and Babe Ruth.

Having said that, it seems I find myself in lockstep agreement with many analysts this morning who think the Phillies will find themselves experiencing a great deal of regret in the years to come for having signed Howard to such a lucrative extension. The $25 million guaranteed average salary in the extension will be baseball's second-highest behind Alex Rodriguez. At least until Albert Pujols gets his new deal.

Howard is 30 years old, turns 31 in November, and the fat extension doesn't even kick in until the 2012 season. My limited mathematical skills tell me Howard will be 32 at the start of the 2012 season and 36 when he enters the final year of the deal in 2016 (not including the $23 million club option for 2017). That's old by baseball slugger standards. Really old. Baseball players reach their power prime when they are 27 and remain there for a few years. In other words, he is probably already past his power peak and power is the biggest thing that Howard brings to the table, aside from being good in the room. The stats reveal that he is already slowly drifting downward from his prime seasons when he was 26 to 29 years old, and those numbers will in all likelihood continue to fall off as the years go by.

Howard strikes out a lot, hasn't hit over .280 in a full season since 2006, is a zoo (read: struggles mightily) against lefties (.219 average from 2007-09), and is already nothing more than a mediocre defensive player at one of the least demanding defensive positions on the diamond. Indeed, in a few years as big Ryan's big body starts to slow down a little more, he will likely be best suited to be a designated hitter. And unless his hefty new deal somehow includes a stipulation that forces the National League to adopt a designated hitter rule change sometime in the next few seasons, I'm afraid the Phillies won't be able to DH him outside of inter-league play.

It's a heckuva lot of money for a guy who has put up huge stats, but will likely begin slowing down soon if the history of aging baseball sluggers is any indication. I just don't understand why the Phillies didn't wait. Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau, even the aforementioned Pujols, will be free agents in the not-so-distant future and Howard's options compared to younger and/or better (Pujols) free agent first basemen would not have been so vast. Especially not at that price and not at that age.  There are only so many teams that can afford a $20-something million per year contract. And now the Phillies have two of them, including Roy Halladay, who just got paid this past offseason. Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels become free agents following the 2011 season and the Phillies best player, Chase Utley, is signed through 2013. At some point the Phillies won't be able to retain all these guys. That some point may begin this upcoming offseason when Jayson Werth becomes a free agent.

The Phillies should have waited. Howard's price tag and maybe even the length of his extension simply would not have been the same a year or two from now.

Twins Need More Kubel

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire gave Jason Kubel the day off on Sunday following his 0-for-5 performance on Saturday against the Royals. It's tough to blame the skipper for such a lineup shift since Saturday's hit-less game dropped Kubel's batting average to an embarrassing .169. The Twins' normally reliable DH/Outfielder is mired in a season-long slump and has just two hits in his last 31 at bats--an .064 funk that has many observers shaking their heads in disbelief... including yours truly.

After all this is Kubel we're talking about here--the man affectionately known as "The Beast" among his peers. Kubel lived up to said moniker last year by hitting .300 with a .908 OPS, 28 home runs, and 103 RBI. He'll really need to turn things around at the plate in a hurry if he hopes to replicate those stats in 2010. Just how bad is it right now? Well, his current batting average is about 100 points worse than any one month average he registered in 2009 and he'll need to raise his batting average about 60 points in the next four games in order to avoid having his worst month at the plate since becoming a regular in the Twins lineup in 2007.  In other words, he'd have to go 2-for-4 each game between now and May so I'm not holding my breath. Indeed, I have benched Kubel on my fantasy team for the first time since 2008.

Kubel is striking out at a rate unprecedented for him. He is currently on pace to fan 143 times this season, which would be 40 more times than he did last year. Even more alarming is his ineffectiveness against fastballs. According to Inside Edge, Kubel hit .354 against fastballs last year -- the 13th best batting average against heaters amongst hitters with at least 300 at bats in 2009. This year, his batting average against fastballs has plummeted to .185. That's terrible compared to the league average of .290 and just plain inexplicable when compared to his prowess against fastballs in the past.

Per Inside Edge, Kubel's well-hit average against fastballs was a blistering .372 in 2009, which ranked second in the majors to his teammate Joe Mauer. Therein lies the glimmer of hope for Kubel busting out of his slump sometime soon. Kubel currently carries a .333 well-hit average against fastballs--a number very incongruous when compared to his low batting average. It seems he's making good contact against heaters, but they just aren't falling in for hits.

These sorts of things have a way of evening out over the course of a season, which leads me to believe the Twins will be getting more from Kubel in the very near future. Maybe that day off will do him some good and maybe, just maybe, I'll have more Kubel in my fantasy lineup next week.

The Curious Cases of Carlos and Carlos

I'm not sure which is more surprising -- the fact that, after seven seasons as a full-time starter and frequent ace, Carlos Zambrano has been moved back to the Cubs bullpen OR the fact that the Cubs "other" Carlos, Carlos Silva, is flourishing in his role as a starter. Both are curious situations to say the least.

Let's look at the data, shall we? From 2003 to 2009, Zambrano went 100-58 with a 3.44 ERA. Other numbers: he's still just 28 years old and he's making a cool $17.875 million this season--the fourth highest salary among active pitchers behind some guys you might have heard of: C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Roy Halladay.Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to suggest that Zambrano is worth that kind or money or that he is pitching well this season. Far from it, but after melting down on Opening Day, Zambrano had two quality outings and 25 strikeouts in his next three starts. Those are hardly the type of stats that warrant being demoted to the pen in my mind, but I'm not managing the Cubs so my opinion on the matter doesn't change what the North Siders decided to do.

Lou Pinella, in his infinite wisdom, has banished Zambrano to the role of setup man to make room for Ted Lilly in the rotation. Allegedly Big Z is on board with the decision, but I have to tell you I'd have an easier time believing Roy Smalley doesn't have a line item for hair care product on his monthly expense report. Zambrano is an awfully expensive bullpen arm and I don't buy for one minute that he won't be back in the Cubbies rotation sooner rather than later.

His chance of regaining a starting spot may eventually come at the expense of Silva, who has been uncharacteristically lights out this season. Silva will take a nifty 2-0 mark into Monday's outing against the Nationals. His ERA stands among the league leaders at 0.95 and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.63. Now, keep in mind these numbers are from a guy who has gone 52-63 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last six seasons.

At the beginning of the season if you had told me that a Cubs pitcher named "Carlos" was moving to the bullpen after his first four starts, I would have been all in on that guy being Silva, not Zambrano. Fantasy owners, you know what to do. Buy low on Zambrano and sell high on Silva.

Ducks on the Pond

One stat in particular jumped out at me as I perused the box score from Sunday's Twins loss to the Royals.

Runners left on base by the Twins: 11.

The Twins have prided themselves on delivering with runners on base and in scoring position the last several seasons, but in the early going of 2010 that has not been the case.  I'm not being nit-picky; that's tough to do given their 9-4 record. However, leaving this many ducks on the pond is borderline alarming and the issue has become an early-season trend that bears mentioning.

Consider how well the Twins have done with runners on base the last two seasons. Here are their totals from 2008 and 2009:

2008
The Twins hit .298 with runners on base (second in the league).
The Twins scored 773 runs withe runners on base (second in the league).
The Twins hit .305 with runners in scoring position (first in the league).
The Twins scored 684 runs with runners in scoring position (second in the league).

2009
The Twins hit .266 with runners on base (18th in the league).
The Twins scored 711 runs withe runners on base (fourth in the league).
The Twins hit .278 with runners in scoring position (fourth in the league).
The Twins scored 639 runs with runners in scoring position (third in the league).

Now, compare that with how poorly they have done this season (through Tuesday):

2010
The Twins are hitting .265 with runners on base (11th in the league).
The Twins have scored 63 runs with runners on base (5th in the league).
The Twins are hitting .248 with runners in scoring position (18th in the league).
The Twins have scored 49 runs with runners in scoring position (12th in the league).

What's really troubling is how poorly the Twins bats have performed with the bases loaded this season. So far they have had 19 at bats with the bases juiced and have produced just three hits for a .159 batting average. Case in point, Twins cleanup hitter Justin Morneau, who is supposed to be their best run producer, has been up a team-high four times with the bases loaded and has yet to collect his first hit.

So the Twins have the third best record in baseball and are winning at nearly a .700 clip despite their abysmal performance with ducks on the pond. It makes you wonder how many runs they might start scoring once they get the bats going with RISP. Denard Span and Orlando Hudson have started doing their part by setting the table after both got off to slow starts. Now it's time for the meat of the order (with the exception of Joe Mauer, who is hitting well in every situation) to come through.

Full Twins stats with RISP, courtesy of ESPN.com.

Filthy Francisco

The two biggest question marks facing the Minnesota Twins as they entered the season have yielded some early season answers that have fans of the first-place team grinning from ear to ear and dreaming of another Homer Hanky October. The biggest question, of course, was whether Jon Rauch or anyone else could adequately fill in for injured closer Joe Nathan. Needless to say, given Rauch's five-for-five start in saves, the early returns look promising. Remember those omnipresent Heath Bell trade rumors? Those have died down considerably, even though there was reportedly a Padres scout at Target Field the other day per my friend Darren Wolfson.

Big question number two was answered to a certain extent Thursday afternoon at the Twins fancy new ballpark. Said question: would Francisco Lirianao's dominant Winter Ball and Spring Training numbers carry over once the real games begin and would he put 2009 behind him? In short, is "The Franchise" back? Answer: it sure looks like it.

Thursday afternoon's performance against the loaded Red Sox lineup (and I say "loaded" because David Ortiz was NOT in the lineup) stirred memories of 2006. The line: 7 IP, 4 hits, 8 strikeouts, 0 runs. Now, I am not about to declare once and for all that Liriano is back to his vintage, pre-Tommy John surgery form. He probably won't ever have that elite level of success again, as short-lived as it was. However, the Liriano we saw on Thursday was a reasonable enough facsimile, and if he can pitch like that more often than not this season, he will evolve into their first, not fifth, starter. He is their only starting pitcher who does not pitch to contact. Liriano pitches to dominate--to blow batters away or to make them look silly.

"Oh, yeah, I haven't felt like that since '06," Liriano told the St. Paul Pioneer Press after today's game. "I got my confidence back. Physically, I'm feeling good. I'm comfortable."

That confidence is one key for Liriano because it was shattered in 2009 when he finished 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA. The other key, obviously, is getting his filthy fastball/slider combination working again. We've heard tales since Winter Ball that the knee-wobbling slider was back; however, Liriano seems to have the heater back close to what it was in 2006 as well. Liriano was consistently hitting 93-94 mph with the fastball on Thursday, which is harder than it has been at any time since '06. According to Inside Edge Baseball Scouting Services, Liriano threw 67 percent of his fastballs for strikes against the BoSox on Thursday, which is three percent higher than the league average and seven percent better than he threw last year. The Red Sox were able to put Liriano's fastball in play, but once again 67 percent of the fastballs they put in play were hit on the ground. That's a good sign, especially since the league average is 42 percent...and just 14 percent of his fastballs were put in play on the ground last year. It's one game, but that's a remarkable difference.

It's that slider that has everyone talking, though. Again according to data compiled by my friends at Inside Edge, Liriano's slider produced strikes 76 percent of the time on Thursday. That's 13 percent higher than the league average. The Red Sox chased his slider out of the zone 43 percent of the time (league average for sliders is 33 percent) and they swung and missed on his slider a whopping 56 percent of the time--25 percent higher than the average slider is missed by major league hitters. Of the 16 sliders that Boston batters swung on, just three were put in play. That's 19 percent, or exactly half the rate at which sliders are put in play on average by big league batters.

Concluded Red Sox outfielder Bill Hall, "He should be really proud of himself. He's definitely got his old stuff back."

If that is indeed the case, and Frankie has his filthy repertoire back, this Twins team just got that much tougher to beat. Yes, there's still 152 games to go and Liriano still has 30-plus starts left, but the confidence is kicking into overdrive.

Based on what you have seen thus far through 10 games from your Minnesota Twins, go ahead and vote in the BoKnowz.com poll: How many games will the Twins win this season?

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch

Here we are a week and change into the 2010 fantasy baseball season, and already most league waiver wires are getting a workout due to some surprising starts by several players. Let's take a look at 10 such players who have experienced an increase in fantasy value so far in this young season. Note: you'll find all of them in bold green (indicating their fantasy stock is on the rise) on the new BoKnowz.com fantasy baseball rankings page.

2B Martin Prado, Braves - Prado came advertised as a pretty solid hitter with fantasy eligibility all over the diamond. In other words: a valuable and versatile player to stash on your fantasy bench in case of an injury at first base, second base, third base, or outfield. Thus far in 2010 he is over-delivering on that promise and leading the Majors in hitting with a gaudy .519 batting average through seven games. He is going to be in the Braves lineup every day given the way he is raking, and should definitely be in fantasy lineups for the foreseeable future, ideally at second base where his value is the greatest.

SS Alex Gonzalez, Blue Jays - Who didn't see this coming? If you didn't raise your hand, you're lying. Entering play on Tuesday, the typically-light-hitting Gonzalez has already belted four home runs. Some perspective: this is Gonzalez's 12th season in the big leagues and he has finished with double digit homers only four times, topping out at 23 in 2004. He's also a career .248 hitter, which makes his current mark of .333 just as alarming as his early power display. Ride the hot hitting while you can because this reeks of a full-blown mirage.

SS Rafael Furcal, Dodgers - He missed most of the 2008 season because of back surgery and struggled to get back on track through the first half of last year, but started flashing glimpses of the old Rafael Furcal in the second half of last season. And he's picked up right where he left off through the first week-plus of games. Rafael already has three multiple-hit games and three stolen bases, after swiping just 12 all of last year. I'm betting on a bounce-back year, and if he stays healthy, Furcal should be able to provide a batting average in the .280-.290 range along with 20-plus steals and maybe 100 runs... not bad for a guy who went undrafted in a lot of leagues.

3B Scott Rolen, Reds - It seems like fantasy owners have been trying to write Rolen off for years, but he just doesn't go away. The power ain't nearly what it used to be when he would regularly belt 25-35 home runs a season, but he did pop two homers on Monday night. And the batting average is still very solid; Scott hit .305 last year and is sailing along at a .318 clip entering play today. You could do much worse than to have Rolen waiting in reserve in case your starting third basemen gets hurt.

3B Chase Headley, Padres - We've been waiting what seems like forever for Headley to deliver on his potential, but with one full (albeit unimpressive) season in the big leagues under his belt it seems he might finally be ready. Still a few weeks shy of his 26th birthday, Chase is batting a blistering .448 with a 1.036 OPS through seven games. Yeah, it's really early, I get that. But Headley has an every-day job and a much higher ceiling than many of the other third basemen still loitering in your league's free agency pool. He's worth a flier if you are looking for infield depth.

3B/2B Placido Polanco, Phillies - When my nephew left his fantasy draft with Polanco as his starting second baseman a couple weeks ago, I warned him that he could be in some trouble at the position. Polanco is a nice player and all, but for fantasy purposes he doesn't have a lot of appeal beyond that of a reliable plug-in player. At least that's what I thought. So far, he is making me eat crow with his Mike Schmidt impersonation. Placido is batting a robust .484 with a home run (a grand slam) and 10 ribbies. The career .304 hitter will probably cool off in the RBI department, especially with Jimmy Rollins sidelined, but with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard hitting behind him in the loaded Phillies lineup he will continue to see a lot of pitches to hit.

OF Vernon Wells, Blue Jays - Apparently Wells is finally trying to post stats worthy of the $12.5 million he is making this season and the $23 million he is due to make next year. No, that's not a misprint. Three straight seasons of underwhelming stats during what should have been the prime of his career leaves me very dubious of his hot start at the plate, but I certainly can't argue with what he is doing so far, namely hitting .320 and leading the American League with five home runs.

DH Andruw Jones, White Sox -Jones must realize that his career is hanging by a thread because he did some hard work to shed weight this offseason. Fortunately for him, the early returns are promising. Fantasy owners had written him off completely in light of the way his production had fallen off the table since leaving Atlanta after the 2007 season; however, he is hitting .333 with a pair of home runs in the early going. His bat could earn him additional playing time in Ozzie Guillen's lineup, but his eligibility in fantasy terms is limited to that of a DH/utility player so he'll have to keep this up in order to deserve a regular spot in fantasy lineups.

SP Matt Garza, Rays - This could be the year that Garza makes the jump from "really good starter" to "true ace". He certainly has the nasty arsenal of pitches, and at age 26 he should be entering his prime. Matt has been lights out so far, posting a 2-0 record, 1.13 ERA, and 0.94 WHIP through two games. A word of caution, though: both of his starts came against the Orioles--a lineup that won't be confused with fellow division rivals like the Red Sox and Yankees any time soon. That said, I have high hopes for Garza this season after retaining him in the eighth round of my dynasty league draft. Now, if he would just do something about that obnoxious beard of his...

SP Carl Pavano, Twins - Who is this guy and what has he done with the real Carl Pavano? Fantasy owners waited until the final rounds of their draft to shrug their shoulders and sheepishly take Pavano off the board, and he has probably been on fantasy benches since because of what appeared to be daunting match-ups against the Angels and Red Sox. That's too bad, because CP is now 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and his pitches are darting all over the strike zone. I'm not quite sure what to think long-term of Pavano's fantasy value just yet, but I can't act like I haven't been impressed.

Hot Pickups

The fantasy baseball season is one week old and roster shuffling is already in high gear. Translation: fantasy owners are hardly a patient lot. Often times that is bad. Other times, when a player's spot in the lineup, injuries, or some other unforeseen factor comes into play early on, making quick roster changes is both understandable and advisable. In light of that, I have identified a few players who are being quickly snatched out of fantasy league free agency pools. I'll continue to post handfuls of hot pickups throughout the season, but for now here are four to consider grabbing.

RP Neftali Feliz, Rangers - The flame-throwing 21-year-old was handed the Rangers closing job after incumbent closer Frank Francisco blew his first two save opportunities of the season. Feliz has the nasty repertoire to be an effective closer, but also has enough plus pitchers to become a starter. For now, however, the Rangers' most glaring need is at the back of their bullpen. Manager Ron Washington has indicated that this may be a temporary move, but if Feliz blossoms in the closer role there will be little reason to mess with their roles. For now, fantasy owners should grab Feliz in re-draft leagues (he was already on teams in keeper formats) and soak up some extra early-season saves. He is still available in over 60 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues and nearly 30 percent of CBS Sportsline leagues.

SS Edgar Renteria, Giants - The 34-year veteran shortstop went undrafted in most fantasy leagues following last year's disappointing numbers, which included a career low .250 batting average and just five home runs. However, heading into play on Monday Renteria ranked second in the Majors in hitting with a .524 average and is the hottest pickup in fantasy leagues. To wit, according to ESPN he was owned in just one percent of leagues last week and now he is owned in 45 percent of leagues. The rate at which he is being picked up indicates the lack of quality depth at the shortstop position, the fickle nature of fantasy owners, and the fact that he still has some name value. I doubt E-Rent has a big bounce-back season in store, but he's worth having in the lineup for now while he is swinging the bat well.

SP Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays - Speaking of bounce-back candidates, after missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery in August of 2008, Marcum looked like a solid pick to rebound in 2009. The Jays named him their Opening Day starter and he has responded very well through two starts, posting a 3.46 ERA, 11 strikeouts, and 0.92 WHIP despite netting two no-decisions. Playing in the A.L. East will continue to make those victories tough to come by, but if he keeps putting up ancillary numbers like those he can still be a quality fantasy contributor. Owners seem to agree, as he is flying off the waiver wire yet still available in about a quarter of leagues per CBS Sportsline.

OF Jeff Francoeur, Mets - One terrible (2008) and another ordinary (2009) season left Frenchy on the outside of fantasy rosters looking in to start the season in most standard sized leagues. In fact, he was owned in just 12 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues following drafts. That number has quickly risen to 30 percent thanks to a first week that included a .476 batting average, two dingers, and six RBI as the Mets every-day right fielder. Even more impressive is the way he has turned around his strikeout-to-walk ratio. Yeah, it's early but it's hard to believe that he is still available in so many leagues, and the CBS estimate of 70 percent owned is likely more accurate. Even so, that means he is still available in a third of fantasy leagues. And that means, you should find room for Jeff, who is still just 26 years old, on your roster...and probably in your lineup this week while he's raking.

Twins Table Not Being Set

Entering Sunday's game against the Chicago White Sox, the first place Minnesota Twins are among the major league leaders in runs scored with 24. It certainly makes sense that they have only lost once since they are right up there toward the top in terms of scoring runs. What doesn't make any sense whatsoever is that they are winning and scoring runs while getting so little from their table setters. The top two batters in the Twins lineup, Denard Span and Orlando Hudson, are both off to terrible starts at the plate. Lead-off hitter Span is batting a paltry .125 (3-for-24) entering play on Sunday. Oh sure, he's walked three times but that only lifts his on base percentage to .214.  Meanwhile, Hudson is sailing along at .192 (5-for-26) and a .222 on base percentage.

The two have combined to score two runs. Yes, you read that right: two runs.

To put that in perspective, backup second baseman Alexi Casilla has scored two runs himself...in ONE at bat. For the record, he scored one of his runs when he was used as a pinch runner, but still, the fact that Casilla has as many runs in one at bat as Span and Hudson have in 50 at bats is both weird and remarkable.

Want another odd stat considering the Twins lofty position in the standings? Just five Twins batters are hitting over .200 right now: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, J.J. Hardy, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young. Yeah, I get that the season is less than a week old and the sample size is very small. I just find these kinds of stats pretty interesting given how well the team is playing overall right now.

My preseason prediction that Span would lead the American League in runs scored isn't looking too hot right now, but as we've said we're only five games in so none of these stats mean very much, right? Twins fans should feel thankful for the long ball and a quality pitching.

Just think what might happen when Span and Hudson actually start setting the table.

Ultimate Zone Rating

It was my understanding there would be no math, but the Ultimate Zone Rating (or "UZR" as the kids are calling it) seems to be all the rage recently.  In case you missed the memo, it's basically a newer and quite complicated method of measuring a baseball player's defensive prowess.  It's not about just counting errors, though that's one small part of the formula. I'll stop there and let this helpful video from the Boston Globe explain it far better than I ever could. Tip of the hat to Rob Neyer of ESPN for sharing this find via Twitter.

And for those of you fantasy baseball owners trying to figure out a way to incorporate UZR into your fantasy league next season...just stop already.

Bo Knowz on the FAN

I took to the airwaves a little early today for my weekly in-studio appearance with Paul Allen on KFAN in the Twin Cities. We talked about (what else?) the Twins first two games of the season, including the perfect performance of Jon Rauch Tuesday night in nailing down his first save as a Twin. Other topics included Delmon Young and his approach at the plate, projections for Joe Mauer, the Twins pitching staff, and notes and observations from around the major leagues. We didn't have time to get into a lot of fantasy baseball stuff because P.A. wanted to talk about Alice Eve instead, but it's a long season so no worries. We'll have plenty of time for that in future weeks. For those of you who missed it, the segments are available online at KFAN.com in their FAN On Demand area.

Remember, you can catch me each week on P.A.'s show. I will typically be on with him from 10:55 to 12:00 Central Time, and I will try to alert listeners here if the schedule changes from now on. The show is available live at KFAN.com for those of you not within listening distance of the FAN Radio Network. We'd love to have you call in. Thanks for listening!

Mauer's Prolific Pace

A lot has been made of the hefty, eight-year contract extension that Joe Mauer recently signed--a deal that will likely keep him in Minnesota playing in front of his hometown fans for the rest of his career.  While it may seem a bit premature to examine Mauer's place in history since he won't turn 27 for another couple weeks and has played fewer than six full seasons in the big leagues, I won't let that stop me.  Ask your typical Twins fan and they'll already proclaim their hero the best catcher ever.

I'm not ready to go that far. Not yet.

In my mind, Reds Hall of Famer Johnny Bench is still the best all around player to ever don the tools of ignorance.  Bench finished his storied career with 389 home runs, 1,376 RBI, a Rookie of the Year award, two MVP awards, 10 gold gloves, and a pair of World Series championships. Old school baseball fans will point to Hall of Famer Mickey Cochrane, whose .320 batting average is the best amongst catchers with at least 5,000 plate appearances, or Yogi Berra and Roy Campenella, each of whom have three MVP awards listed on their Hall of Fame plaques. And what about Josh Gibson? He might actually have been the best ever, but we'll unfortunately never know for sure.  Cases could also be made for more recent players like Mike Piazza, who has 427 home runs, 1,335 RBI, and a .308 lifetime batting average on his resume and Ivan Rodriguez, who has caught more games than any player in history, owns 13 gold gloves, and leads all catchers with 2,711 career hits. More on him in a moment.

Bottom line: Twins fans should relax a little because Joe still has a little ways to go. In fact, he'll likely never come close to the prodigious home run totals posted by the likes of Bench and Piazza nor will he win nearly as many World Series titles (10) as Berra. However, his batting average and glove work will eventually match up favorably with the best ever.

If he stays healthy and maintains something close to the pace he has established.

Obviously, his health will be the key. Mauer has already been sidelined by significant knee and back injuries in his young career and he plays the most physically demanding position in the game. As for maintaining his pace, I sincerely believe the torrid pace he is on will continue for quite some time. On average, hitters enter their prime when they turn 27, meaning Joe is just reaching his peak seasons. Mauer already has three batting championships, and as you probably have heard a couple hundred times by now, no catcher has ever won more. That will ultimately be his pass to the Hall of Fame because he's probably not done winning batting titles. Indeed, he's the favorite to win another one this year.

After hitting .365 in 2009, Mauer now owns a career .327 batting average--so in about three years, or about 2,000 more plate appearances, he will have the required 5,000 career PAs to be listed among the career leaders. If he continues his .327 pace, he will own the highest career batting average for a catcher. As I noted above, that mark is currently held by Cochrane, at .320. Truthfully, his career average will probably climb during his peak years before coming back down to earth a bit when he reaches the end of his contract at 35 years old. If at that time, he is still averaging .327, not only will he own the career batting average mark for catchers by a substantial margin, he will also be one of just five catchers with at least 5,000 plate appearances to have a batting average over .300.  That's pretty select company.

So let's assume for the purposes of this discussion that Mauer will maintain his .327 average over the next nine seasons. If he averages 525 at bats the next nine years (he had 523 at bats after missing the first month of the season last year) Mauer will have a total of 2,389 hits. That would be more hits than any catcher currently in the Hall of Fame and the third most by a catcher in history as far as I can tell.  Correct me if I'm wrong. Ted Simmons would still have more hits, with 2,472, but he played 21 seasons. Remember for comparison, Mauer would have 15 seasons under his belt and be within 100 hits of Simmons by that time. The aforementioned Ivan Rodriguez would also have more hits. He opens this season with 2,711 hits, seemingly intent on reaching 3,000. However, it's important to point out that Pudge is in his 20th season and about a year ago he all-but admitted to using steroids earlier in his career. His alleged PED use is hardly shocking to anyone who witnessed him morph from chunky backstop to lean, muscle-bound athlete during the peak of his career with the Rangers.

Thus, in comparison to Simmons and Rodriguez, by 2018 Mauer could easily be regarded as the most prolific (and clean) hitter amongst catchers in the game's history. Again, that's assuming a .327 batting average and 525 at bats for the next nine seasons. To some, that could be considered a conservative estimate if he stays healthy. At the same time, that's projecting quite a few years into the future and a lot could happen between now and then. But hey, it's fun to do these sorts of projections.

Mauer is already one of just 10 catchers to win an MVP award, and if he adds another one in 2010, as I have predicted, he will become one of just four catchers (along with Bench, Berra, and Campenella) to win multiple MVP awards. Throw in a mantle full of gold gloves (he already has two) and Mauer's place in history by the end of his fat new contract will be secure. Even a handful of more seasons at this pace and Joe will have a plaque in Cooperstown to call his own. At the very least, one can be certain that no Twin will ever wear the No. 7 after he is done using it and his likeness will someday be cast in bronze (sideburns and all) on Target Plaza outside the new Twins stadium alongside Rod, Harmen, Tony-O, and Kirby for future generations to enjoy.

2010 Player Predictions

A few days ago I submitted the official BoKnowz.com team predictions for 2010 with the Red Sox topping the Phillies in the World Series. That one is looking really good right now, by the way. So now that the season is 1/4860ths old after the BoSox comeback win over the Yanks on Easter, it is time for the real Opening Day...and also time for me to go on record with the rest of my 2010 Major League forecast.

This one is more fun because it is player-centric. Below you will find my prognostication for the leader in each major statistical category as well as the major year-end awards.

So without further ado, I present my 2010 baseball player predictions...

THE LEADERS
A.L. Batting Average: Joe Mauer, Twins (.370)
N.L. Batting Average: Pablo Sandoval, Giants (.333)

A.L. Runs: Denard Span, Twins (119)
N.L. Runs: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (122)

A.L. Stolen Bases: Elvis Andrus, Rangers (55)
N.L. Stolen Bases: Nyjer Morgan, Nationals (63)

A.L. OPS: Joe Mauer, Twins (1.075)
N.L. OPS: Albert Pujols, Cardinals (1.120)

A.L. Home Runs: Nelson Cruz, Rangers (40)
N.L. Home Runs: Prince Fielder, Brewers (44)

A.L. RBI: Mark Teixeira, Yankees (135)
N.L. RBI: Albert Pujols, Cardinals (133)

A.L. Wins: C.C. Sabathia, Yankees (21)
N.L. Wins: Roy Halladay, Phillies (24)

A.L. ERA: Zack Greinke, Royals (2.69)
N.L. ERA: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals (2.78)

A.L. WHIP: Felix Hernandez, Mariners (1.09)
N.L. WHIP: Roy Halladay, Phillies (1.07)

A.L. Strikeouts: Justin Verlander, Tigers (244)
N.L. Strikeouts: Tim Lincecum, Giants (250)

A.L. Saves: Mariano Rivera, Yankees (41)
N.L. Saves: Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers (40)

THE AWARDS
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Austin Jackson, Tigers
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Braves

A.L. Cy Young: Jon Lester, Red Sox
N.L. Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies

A.L. MVP: Joe Mauer, Twins
N.L. MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals

Yes, I am predicting that Mauer and Pujols will repeat as MVPs because to me they are head and shoulders the best players in their respective leagues. I just double-checked Baseball-Reference.com and the same A.L. and N.L. MVP has not won in back-to-back years...ever. So while that prediction may not seem so bold at first, the fact that it is unprecedented makes it pretty darn bold in my book. So, what say you? I'd like to hear some of your player predictions as the 2010 season gets underway. Play ball!

Right on Target

I made my second trip to Target Field this weekend and it was even more jaw-dropping than my first visit because this time I actually had a chance to see a game. My wife and I had the good fortune to get some tickets for the first-ever Twins game at the new stadium, an exhibition game against the Cardinals on Friday. We have tickets for the opener on the 12th against the Red Sox, too, so any way you slice it we will be able to claim that we were at the first game at the Twins brilliant new home. For the record, I was also at the final Twins game ever at the old Metropolitan Stadium back in 1981 (with about 8,000 other people on a rainy day against the Royals). Plus I can also claim with a little less bravado that I was at the second Twins game ever as well as the next-to-last Twins game at the Metrodome. Clearly, their new home takes the cake. It's not even close.

My wife and I arrived at the ballpark early, somewhere around 1:30. We got right into the parking ramp across the street for $13 and parked on the roof, giving us a spectacular view of the downtown skyline and the top of the new stadium across the street. The $13 we paid was admittedly pretty steep, but considering the quick-changing weather we were dealing with (cold and rainy one minute, followed by humid and a bit steamy the next) it provided the convenience of being able to run back across the street before going in the gates in order to shed the sweatshirt and rain poncho in favor of the t-shirt and rain jacket. Had we taken the light rail downtown or parked 10 blocks away, we would not have had that luxury. Anyways, to our surprise, at the end of the game we were able to zip right back out of the ramp and hit the freeway very quickly--we were on 35W about five minutes after getting back to our car.

Speaking of convenience, for those of you who bristle at the thought of shelling out $7 for a beer at Target Field--both inside the confines of the new park and out on Target Plaza prior to the game--I suggest walking what seemed to be about 90 feet off the plaza to the new Hubert's location. In case you have not heard, it has taken the place of the old NBA City, and man is it convenient! The short walk payed off when we found out we could get a $3 tap beer rather than paying $7 across the way. I have a feeling the folks at Hubert's are going to be raking it in...not that the old location across from the Metrodome sucked for them.

After downing a few pregame libations at Hubert's we hurried back to the Plaza for the unveiling of the Rod Carew statue. Carew was my boyhood idol and remains my favorite baseball player of all time, so it was especially meaningful for me to get to watch him being honored in such a way...and to take it all in from about 10 feet away during the entire ceremony. The Carew statue is great and I can't wait to see the one they did of Harmon Killebrew, which was unveiled Saturday, or the one of the late Kirby Puckett, which will be unveiled prior to the real home opener next week.

A cool aspect that I did not realize until noticing it at home in my official Target Field fan guide before the game was that you can actually bring food and bottled water into the stadium. Certain restrictions apply of course; they don't want you bringing in stuff like apples that you can chuck onto the field and they limit the beverages to water, as I said, and juice. No cases of beer allowed. Funny how that works! The great thing about that is you can come in with a water bottle and some peanuts, sandwiches, or sunflower seeds (or whatever) and not have to spend a fortune on food at the game on top of the prices you pay for the tickets and parking to begin with. Don't get me wrong, it's still fun to get a hot dog, burger, or a Murray's steak sandwich at the ballpark, but in this economy and especially if you are bringing your family to the game it makes sense to pack a bag (the fits under your seat) with extras. Now, there may very well have been a similar policy in place at the Dome, but I never knew about it nor was it widely advertised, so this was news to me.

The one thing that kinda sucked about the whole water bottle strategy was that, contrary to what I read in the Minneapolis Star Tribune a week or so ago, refilling an empty bottle at a drinking fountain is easier said than done. It's easier to find a hole in Joe Mauer's swing than it is to find a water fountain at Target Field. In fact, I never did find one and the sinks in the bathroom are too low to fit a bottle under. If anyone knows of a Target Field water fountain and can tell me approximately where I can find it when I go back there I would appreciate it. And about that policy regarding no alcohol being allowed in the gates, I know for a fact that the security missed one college-aged buffoon's flask...because when they showed him and his over-served pal on the ginormous new scoreboard early in the game he held it up and took a pull off it. Idiot. He was probably escorted out of the building faster than Denard Span can scoot from first to third.

I heard some people complaining about the long lines at the food stands throughout the park, but I frankly didn't have that experience. I only had about a five-to-10 minute wait in the middle of the game at the Murray's steak sandwich stand on the lower level of the first base line. Nothing out of the ordinary about the wait time at all. I also read complaints about trouble with cell phone service at the stadium, but neither my wife nor I experienced similar issues with our phones.  The other complaint  I heard was about the colder and windier conditions in the upper deck, to which I respond three ways: first of all it shouldn't surprise anyone that it might be a tad more uncomfortable up there. Second, I sure am glad our seats are on the lower level. And third, don't be such a wuss! The fact that we even have wind to discuss at a ballpark (as opposed to air conditioning) is fantastic. By the way, it was blowing in from right field for most of the game and the huge "wind veil" (which you can sort of see in the photo to the right) that hangs from the parking ramp adjacent to Target Plaza is very cool when the lights come on after dark.

My only minor (very minor) complaints: I thought the seats would be noticeably wider than they were at the Metrodome. They are not. However, they are at least tilted toward the playing field if you are sitting down the line. Second complaint: the wave somehow followed us across town to the new ballpark. Seriously, the wave needs to go away. It's just plain cheesy. I guess there's nothing the Twins or Target Field officials could have done to prevent that, but still...I had to get that off my chest. Last complaint: you know how at the Dome the security would not let you walk down the aisle after hitting the food stand or going to the bathroom until there was a break in the action (e.g. after the half inning)? That policy apparently stayed at the Dome because there was what seemed to be a constant stream of people coming down the aisles that I had to look around, over, or through during the game. That was a big nuisance and I hope the powers that be get that squared away prior to the start of the real games.

Everything else about the Target Field experience is top notch: the museum-like clubs,  the green, green grass, the overhanging seats in right field, the sight lines, the flagpole from the Met, real outfield walls rather than a baggie, the limestone exterior that laces throughout the park, the pine trees in center field, the openess of it all, and the scoreboard...that huge HD scoreboard. That thing was spectacular and incredibly crystal-clear. Oh, and I love the Minne and Paul logo that lights up in center field. I could go on and on, but you get the point. The fact that the "roof" on the new place includes sunshine, spectacular clouds, occasional airplanes, birds, and stars at night makes the whole experience nearly perfect despite the aforementioned minor complaints.

Those who are still pining for a retractable roof so they don't have to get wet or chilly or sunburned just don't get it. I'm sorry, you are just missing the point completely...unlike the new ballpark itself, which is "right on target."

Have you been to Target Field yet? Please share your thoughts, tips, accolades, complaints. whatever you want.

2010 Predictions

Any baseball blog or web site worth its rosin is practically required to publish its annual picks for the Major League Baseball season ahead. Therefore, with the big league slate of games ready to get underway on Easter Sunday it's probably about time I go on record and chime in with my official predictions. I won't go Bo-stradamus on the bit and present my forecasts in the form of quatrains -- not that it wouldn't be cool to do so. However, quatrains would leave room for interpretation of what I'm really saying, so I'll just be boring and run through the divisional and postseason prognostications instead.


A.L. EAST
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

A.L. CENTRAL
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

A.L. WEST
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland A's

N.L. EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Florida Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

N.L. CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

N.L. WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Colorado Rockies
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

ALDS
Twins over Yankees
Red Sox over Angels

ALCS
Red Sox over Twins

NLDS
Phillies over Dodgers
Cardinals over Rockies

NLCS
Phillies over Cardinals

WORLD SERIES
Red Sox over Phillies

There you have 'em... the official BoKnowz.com predictions for the 2010 season. Go ahead and disagree or agree all you want. We'll all find out how accurate they are in about seven months.

A Few More Sleepers

I named three of my favorite second base fantasy sleepers the other day and have since been asked for a few more sleepers from other positions before the season starts. I know that many of you are having drafts in the next three days before the regular season begins on Easter Sunday with the Red Sox and Yankees. In fact, when I was on KFAN this morning with Henry Lake, his producer told me he has a draft tonight and one of our callers said he was in not one, but two, drafts tonight. To that end, here are 10 more hitting sleepers that I like a lot this season (in no particular order):

Geovany Soto - The Cubs catcher slumped badly in his sophomore follow up to his rookie of the year campaign, but he looks like a new man (literally) after shedding 40 pounds this offseason. 

Carlos Quentin - The White Sox desperately need him to supply power to their new, speedy lineup. After missing 63 games last year with a foot injury, big Carlos is poised to deliver. Quentin has averaged a home run every 14.5 at bats the last two seasons.

Billy Butler - He's still just 23, but the Royals first baseman is an underrated big league slugger at the very deep first base position. He had 51 doubles and 21 dingers last year en route to a .301 average. The kid can rake.

Nick Swisher - I like his chances of replicating last year's 29 homers in the new Yankee Field band box, and I really like the fact that he is eligible at both first base and outfield in most fantasy leagues.

J.J. Hardy - I like the offense the Twins have assembled and I think Hardy will bounce back in a big way, lounging near the bottom of their loaded lineup. The 50 homers he hit from 2007-08 are not such a distant memory.

Austin Jackson - The Tigers rookie center fielder will be given a long leash as their every-day lead-off hitter and will be given the green light to run as much as he wants once he reaches base.

Troy Glaus - He's healthy again after shoulder surgery all but wiped out his 2009 season. Glaus will bat in the middle of Atlanta's lineup and it's worth noting that he has never hit fewer than 25 home runs in any season in which he has played 140 games.

Colby Rasmus - I think I might even be able to score 100 runs if I hit directly in front of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the Cardinals lineup. Therefore, Colby might score 175 times.

Adrian Beltre - Beltre should fare much better offensively now that he calls Fenway Park home rather than the pitching-friendly confines of Safeco Field. Are 30 home runs out of the question? I think not.

Julio Borbon - The Rangers center fielder is popping up on almost everyone's sleeper list this preseason, and for good reason. He hit .312 in 157 at bats last year and he has the wheels to swipe 50 bases if he can repeat that pace.

There you have it... a handful of additional sleepers on my fantasy radar. I'd be interested in hearing who you regard as a sleeper heading into the 2010 season. Which players do you think are going to vastly out-perform their draft position?

Twins Wrapping Up Grapefruit League

The Minnesota Twins will put the finishing touches on Grapefruit League play with split squad games against the Rays and Yankees Wednesday followed by one last game against their Fort Myers neighbors from Boston Thursday. Then it will be time to pack their bags and head north to the Twin Cities, as they christen Target Field with a pair of exhibition games against the Cardinals on Friday and Saturday.  As the clock winds down on another promising spring training, here are some news and notes from the Twins clubhouse:

In case you missed it, Francisco Liriano has been named the team's fifth starter. He easily won the competition by posting a 2.70 ERA, 30 strikeouts, and five walks in 20 innings of work this spring. Liriano will join Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, and Nick Blackburn in the rotation and is relieved he will not be forced to take over the closer job vacated by the injured Joe Nathan, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The Twins rotation stacks up with the White Sox as the best in the division. The Sox might have a better one-two punch at the top with Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy, but I have my doubts about their fifth starter, journeyman Freddy Garcia.

Liriano's claim to the fifth starting job means that Glen Perkins was optioned back to Triple-A Rochester and Brian Duensing will move back to the bullpen, joining Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Clay Condrey, and Jose Mijares. Now, there is a chance that Condrey may be forced to open the season on the disabled list because of weakness in his right shoulder. If that happens, the Twins will likely go with Ron Mahay to fill that final bullpen spot, according to Minneapolis Star Tribune Twins beat writer Joe Christensen. Speaking of the bullpen, here's some good perspective on the closer-by-committee approach the Twins plan to employ this season in the absence of Nathan, courtesy of Around the Majors.

The backup catcher to start the season will not be Jose Morales, since he was placed on the disabled list as expected. As we all know, the Twins will use Joe Mauer just about every day. However, he still needs to give his knees some occasional days off behind the dish. On those days, the light-hitting Drew Butera will be the one donning the tools of ignorance behind the plate. So why did Butera and his .174 spring batting average win the job over Wilson Ramos, who is one of the top catching prospects in baseball and added a bomb over the batter's eye in center field yesterday to complete his impressive spring with a .400 batting average? It's simple, really. The Twins want Ramos to play every day, and he won't get that chance for the next nine years in Minnesota...or until Mauer makes the switch to another position. My hunch is that any plans to acquire a new closer to replace Nathan may involve a trade of Ramos and/or Perkins, who can't be too happy with his demotion.

The Twins key bats have been en fuego for most of the spring. Mauer is hitting .429, Michael Cuddyer is hitting .458, Jason Kubel is hitting .327 with a team-high four home runs, Denard Span is hitting .310, J.J. Hardy is hitting .355, and Jim Thome is hitting .370. Then there's Justin Morneau, who takes a .171 batting average into the final three games of the spring. Morneau is understandably frustrated with his results (just ask the trash can he bashed over the weekend) but Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire doesn't seem too worried per today's Minneapolis Star Tribune.

That's all the Twins notes for now. I'll be heading to the Twins exhibition game against the Cardinals at Target Field on Friday and will have some more notes as well as some new photos (hopefully) of the stadium after that.

Second Base Sleepers

Second base is one of the thinnest positions in fantasy baseball. There are not enough top players to ensure every team in a standard, 10-to-12 team league gets one. Thus. it's an awfully good idea to have a few sleepers in mind as you head into your drafts, just in case the top few tiers (Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Robinson Cano, Ben Zobrist, and Brandon Phillips) are off the board before you get a chance to fill the spot in your lineup. No, I didn't include Brian Roberts in that list because I think his back problems are too much of a red flag. To that end, allow me to offer up my three favorite second base sleepers.

Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick has the potential to develop into one of the better hitting second basemen in the game; however, a slow start to the 2009 season and inconsistent playing time resulted in a surprising trip back to the minors last year. He was hitting .231 at the time he was sent down to the farm, but he was not playing every day and that made it difficult for him to get on track. The demotion did not last long, but it did significant damage to his fantasy value in the minds of a lot of owners, especially those who drafted him in '09.  To Kendrick's credit, though, he turned things around in a hurry after being recalled and hit a blistering .351 over his final 51 games of the season to finish at a very respectable .291. Kendrick's .302 career average is legit, and with the starting second base gig nailed down his first 500 at-bat season is very likely. Given that many at bats, he could also threaten to become a 20/20 player.

Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks has worn out fantasy owners who have been awaiting his big breakout season.  He has never played in even 130 games in a season and has only twice topped 100 games since making his big-league debut in 2003 as a 21 year-old. He's still only 27, and this could/should be the season he puts it all together. He just needs to stay healthy...where have we heard that before? Despite the number of games he has missed, Rickie has career highs of 16 home runs and 25 stolen bases (both in 2007) leading me to believe that a 20/30 season is not out of the question as he enters his prime and gets 500 at bats for the first time.  Through 49 spring training at bats, Weeks is batting .306 with two homers, three steals, and a team-high 12 runs. Best of all, he's healthy. Knock on wood.

My deep sleeper at second base is Tampa Bay's Sean Rodriguez. Yeah, I know you probably have his teammate, the aforementioned Ben Zobrist, penciled in among the upper echelon of fantasy second basemen already. That being said, Zobrist can also play in the outfield and the Rays need some help in right. For that matter, Rodriguez qualifies as an outfielder, but the current thinking as we finish up Grapefruit League play is that Zobrist might spend a lot of time in right field and Rodriguez could be the every-day second baseman. Rodriguez could also get some time in the outfield and can also play third base if Evan Longoria needs a day  off.  The bottom line is that Joe Maddon has to find a place for Rodriguez's bat in his lineup. He has been the Rays' best hitter this spring, which is saying something.  In fact, he has been arguably the Grapefruit League's best hitter. Believe me, I realize that we should never overreact to spring training stats, but it's hard to ignore when a player has a .439 batting average, 1.344 OPS, 17 runs, and a major-league best six homers through 57 at bats.  Maddon could announce his lineup plans any day now and it would stun me if S-Rod is not a big part of those plans.

Brave New World

Every new baseball season brings with it a fresh crop of talented kids looking to make a splash in The Show. More often than not the hype around some of these young prospects is just that: hype. It's not easy to make the jump from one minor league level to the next, and even tougher to clear that final hurdle to the majors. You'll often hear about players being sent back down to the farm "for more seasoning" before being installed on the 25-man roster. Oftentimes, the player really does need more experience. Other times, it's simply a case of the franchise seeking to delay the start of the clock on a player's big-league service time (see Strasburg, Stephen), thereby delaying when said player becomes arbitration-eligible, and by extension, eligible for free agency.

But while the Nationals have chosen to put off the countdown on their pitching phenom (the aforementioned Strasburg) the Braves could no longer delay the inevitable with their Next Big Thing. Anyone who has witnessed mammoth right fielder/tight end/power forward Jason Heyward and his frightening display of power and plate discipline this spring knows he's big-league ready. Apparently the Braves agree.

This morning, Atlanta skipper Bobby Cox confirmed one of the Grapefruit League's worst-kept secrets: Heyward will be on the Opening Day roster. He will be their starting right fielder. My guess is that the Braves won't need to use any options on this guy in the future; he's in Hotlanta to stay.

Heyward's legend has grown this spring and he is drawing comparisons to several greats, including but not limited to Albert Pujols, Darryl Strawberry, Fred McGriff, and Dave Parker. However, the most apt comparison I have heard is the likeness to Willie McCovey...you know, the Hall of Famer with 521 career home runs and 1,555 RBI. Yeah, I know, that's a lofty comparison, but Heyward's jaw-dropping raw ability has sparked all kinds of accolades this spring from some highly respected and reputable sources. You've probably heard some of the stories about him damaging cars in the parking lots beyond the outfield fences, or how players, coaches, and fans alike stop what they are doing and just watch when it's time for his turn in the batting cage. Or how the ball makes that unique sound when it comes off his bat...that indescribable sound that only special hitters with Ruthian power are able to produce.

Below are some of the better Heyward links so far this spring:

From MLB.com.
From the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer.
From The New York Times.
From The USA Today.

There are more legendary depictions of his powers where these came from, but you get the picture. Heyward's average draft position in fantasy leagues for much of the spring has been somewhere north of 200. However, it has been moving upward at a pretty good pace, spiking into the 150-to-200 range in re-draft leagues and, of course, much higher in dynasty and keeper formats. You can bet that today's confirmation that he will be their starting right fielder will move the needle on his draft position quite a bit...enough that even Ron Burgundy might again quip, "That escalated quickly!"

Rounding Out the Twins Roster

Baseball's regular season starts in just a few weeks and the Twins, who entered spring training with only a few roster question marks, are in the final stages of determining who makes the 25-man roster. The team will almost certainly keep 12 pitchers, meaning there is room for the starting nine hitters and just four bats off the bench.  One of those bats will obviously be Jim Thome. Another will be whoever loses the third base competition between Nick Punto and Brendan Harris--right now it looks like it's Punto's job despite his sub-.200 batting average and Harris' .400 average this March. A third hitter will be the backup catcher, which will probably be Drew Butera until Jose Morales is ready to roll. That leaves only one bench spot.

As of this morning, the final spot on the pine appeared to belong to Alexi Casilla, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, because he is out of minor league options and, as manager Ron Gardenhire said, "If they're both about in the same place, it (lack of options) makes a huge difference because we don't want to lose Alexi Casilla." I hate to disagree with the skipper, but I fail to see the downside in losing Casilla.  Seriously, he wouldn't be a huge loss. However, the battle has not been decided yet and the struggling Matt Tolbert or even veteran outfielder Jacque Jones (who went yard today) could wind up with that final spot.

I think it will ultimately be a moot point because, barring injury, Casilla or Tolbert would be used for little more than pinch running duty (likely for Thome after he pinch hits) and Jones would only be used to spell one of the outfielders when they need a day off. Moreover, I suspect we're going to see third base prospect Danny Valencia in a Twins uniform by mid-season, meaning somebody will have to go.

Nathan's Surgery Scheduled for Friday

The surgery for injured Minnesota Twins All-Star closer Joe Nathan has been set. Nathan will undergo Tommy John surgery this Friday, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The paper reports that he will have Mets team physician David Altcheck do the surgery, after which Nathan will need approximately 12 months of rehab. A ligament from his wrist (umm, make sure to use the left wrist, doc) will be removed to replace the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

Joe is optimistic that he will be ready to pitch in time for Opening Day 2011, but that remains to be seen. Some pitchers need more than 12 months to rehab from Tommy John surgery and rare is the pitcher who returns to 100 percent in his first season following the procedure. It almost never happens. I have no doubt that, barring a setback, Nathan will pitch for the Twins at some point next season. However, I have to wonder whether the team will pick up his $12.5 million option for 2012 when he will be 37 years old. That's a lot of money for a closer that old (even if he didn't start pitching until he was 24) and it's an especially big number for one who has a surgically repaired elbow.

As for who will be closing games for the Twins this season, I'm not holding my breath awaiting a trade withe Padres for Heath Bell, as has been widely rumored. Don't get me wrong, that would be a great solution for the Twins. After all, Bell led the National League with 42 saves last year and posted a tidy 1.12 WHIP and 2.71 ERA to go with it. In addition, he is only due to be paid $4 million this season and has one year of arbitration left so he won't be a free agent after the season. That said, the asking price for Bell is reportedly very high--as in at least two of the Twins best prospects. That's not going to happen.

I'm not too fired up about the rumors surrounding Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor. Yes, he's a cheap alternative with closer experience, but the Twins already have a similar guy in house in the tall form of Jon Rauch.  I don't see Frasor as that much of an upgrade, but maybe the Twins can obtain him on the cheap.
Whatever the case, I don't think Twins GM Bill Smith is content to sit back after spending nearly $100 million in payroll and possibly let the lack of a closer stand in their way of a deep postseason push. Not with a new stadium opening next month. The Twins are built to make a run now so look for them to at least kick the tires on a number of closer options from outside the organization. Nathan's contract is insured so some of that insurance money could be used to pay for a new ninth-inning guy. Stay tuned.