BoKnowz Updates

I have several updates to report today.

First of all I have a handful of new articles and blog postings over at FoxSportsNorth.com:

An analysis of several player performances from around the majors in an attempt to decipher which ones are for real and which ones are not. Read the full article entitled "Trend or Mirage" over at FoxSportsNorth.com.

A look at the incredible start to the season that Ubaldo Jimemez has turned in. I examine his current pace and tell you what I would do if I owned him in a fantasy league and someone had the audacity to make me a trade offer for him. It's entitled "Unbelievable Ubaldo" and it's available exclusively at FoxSportsNorth.com.

Third, I examine the fanfare surrounding the upcoming debut this Tuesday (June 8) of Washington Nationals pitching phenom, Stephen Strasburg. Will he live up to the hype? Check out "Here Comes Strasburg" only at FoxSportsNorth.com.

Paul Allen of KFAN Radio in the Twin Cities has asked me to extend my role as a weekly in-studio contributor year-round. So the plan is for me to continue joining P.A. every Wednesday for an hour starting at 9:55 AM CT. We talk a lot of major league baseball, Twins baseball, and fantasy baseball, plus we take your phone calls. The show can be heard online at KFAN.com and you can listen to the replay of every show on their "FAN on Demand" page.

I also want to pass along that I will be conducting a free online chat this Thursday at 12 Noon Central Time, talking all things fantasy baseball and fantasy football.  I invite you to swing by FoxSportsNorth.com while you are eating lunch at your desk and pepper me with some questions.

We are still in the process of building up the fantasy page at FSN.com. My in-season fantasy baseball rankings and preseason fantasy football cheat sheets will be coming soon. I will be sure to post an announcement here when they are live on the site.

Hot Pickups

Fantasy baseball veterans know better than to rest on their laurels when they are in first place or sit and do nothing when their team is in the cellar. You should be constantly trolling the waters in your league's free agency pool looking for ways to improve your team.

This should be a daily, not monthly, exercise. Yeah, I know that sounds like a lot of work, but it's supposed to be fun ... besides, you DO want to win your league, don't you?

I have taken it upon myself to uncover some of the hottest pickups in fantasy baseball right now. I whittled it down to a top 10, including Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana, and published my findings (where else?) over at FoxSportsNorth,com. You can read the full article there, entitled "Hot Pickups."

Have I mentioned that you can find ALL my fantasy baseball and fantasy football analysis all in one place over at FoxSportsNorth.com? Do you get the sense I'm trying to push traffic toward the site?

You can also follow by FoxSportsNorth,com Tweets at http://twitter.com/FSNBoMitchell. It's a different Twitter account than the one that generates the feed found in the right hand column here at BoKnowz.com so I encourage you to check it out.

The Cardinal Rule

The most important thing to remember whenever you consider making a trade in fantasy baseball (or football, or basketball, or any fantasy sport for that matter) is to "Buy Low and Sell High." It seems pretty easy, but I swear if I had a nickel for every fantasy owner who has made a trade that directly violated that rule, I'd have enough cash to build a new Vikings stadium.

Thus, this week over at FoxSportsNorth.com, I did a two-part series of fantasy baseball articles designed to help owners identify which players were prime targets for buying low and which they should be considering selling high on.

Here are the links to the two articles from FoxSportsNorth.com: Buy Low and Sell High.

Fantasy Baseball Notes

In my latest fantasy baseball blog posts over at FoxSportsNorth.com, I examine the incredible season being turned in thus far by Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, who in addition to leading the league in batting average and slugging percentage, is getting on base at nearly a .500 clip.

Find out just how rare it is to reach base 50 percent of the time by reading the full article entitled "Morneau is Always on" over at FoxSportsNorth.com.

In addition, I take a look at the surprising Vladimir Guerrero and the incredible season he is having so far for the Rangers. I did some digging on his career numbers and let's just say you won't believe what I've uncovered. He is in elite Hall of Fame company ... don't act like you're not impressed.


Read the full article entitled "Vlad's Historic Pace" over at FoxSportsNorth.com.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch

Not unlike Orlando Hudson’s mouth, fantasy values are always in motion. The best owners maintain a finger on the pulse of the fantasy baseball stock market in order to gauge the best time to make a trade or lineup change. In order to assist you as you endeavor to extract the most from your fantasy season, I’ve identified some players who are currently experiencing significant fluctuations in their values.

Among the players I examine is the Mets Jason Bay, who went yard twice against the Yankees last night.

Visit FoxSportsNorth.com for the full article.

The New Gig

I've been away from BoKnowz.com for a few weeks, but I've got a good excuse.

FoxSportsNorth.com has hired me to be their Fantasy Sports Insider, so I will be pouring a majority of my efforts into that site from this point on. I still plan on keeping BoKnowz.com updated and fresh with news and observations. Moreover, you will be able to find easy links to all of the fantasy baseball content I produce for FSN.com right here at BoKnowz.com.

Keep this page bookmarked and stay tuned for more announcements coming soon!

Triple Crown Trivia

Entering the 2010 season the only player that was universally given any kind of chance of winning baseball's Triple Crown for hitting was the Cardinals Albert Pujols. Given his ability to hit for both average and power, we still can't rule out the possibility of Pujols becoming the first player to lead his league in batting average, home runs, and RBI since 1967 when the Red Sox Carl Yaztrzemski accomplished the rare feat. Yaz had one of 16 Triple Crown seasons in baseball history--and three of those occurred back in the 19th century. Hall of Famers Ted Williams (1942, 1947) and Rogers Hornsby (1922, 1925) are the only two players to pull off the hallowed trifecta more than once.

Entering play on Tuesday, however, an unlikely hitter is leading the Triple Crown charge in the National League: Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier, who leads the Senior Circuit with a .365 batting average, 26 RBI, and is tied for the league lead with nine home runs with two others. There are a few interesting things to note about Ethier's candidacy for the Crown.

First, he is not even considered the best hitter on his own team; that distinction is generally given to fellow outfielder Matt Kemp or the one and only Manny Ramirez. If you had told most baseball fans that a Dodgers hitter would be contending for the Triple Crown at any point this season, nine out of 10 would have guessed Kemp, not Ethier.

The other weird thing about Ethier's contention is that only one Triple Crown winner has ever played for a losing team--Chuck Klein for the 1933 Philadelphia Phillies--and the last three winners (Yazstrzemski, Frank Robinson, and Mickey Mantle) all played for first place teams. Yet Kemp's Dodgers are currently residing in last place in the N.L. West.

Do I think we need to seriously concern ourselves with Ethier making history by winning a Triple Crown for a last place squad? No, not at all. Ethier is a nice player, but I doubt he will finish in the top 10 of more than one of the Triple Crown categories when all is said and done. As for the Dodgers, they were my preseason pick to win the West, but something is seriously amiss with this team (read: pitching). Thus, while I don't think they'll wind up in last place, there's a far better chance of that happening than there is of anyone, even Pujols, winning a Triple Crown this season.

All-April Team

April baseball is in the books, or another way to look at it: the season is one-seventh of the way over. It's time to recognize those players who performed like All-Stars in the first month of the season and made their fantasy owners look like geniuses for drafting them... or in a few cases, picking them up out of free agency after the season had begun. You'll find a few All-Star regulars on the list below, but also some surprising names that few saw coming.

C Joe Mauer, Twins - The home runs aren't there yet, but despite the lack of power Mauer leads all catchers in batting average and runs scored and ranks second in RBI

1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals - Nice way to lead off the All-April team with the reigning MVPs. Sir Albert ranks second among all first basemen in batting average (.345) and home runs (7).

2B Robinson Cano, Yankees - Cano has been unconscious at the plate in recent weeks. He leads the big leagues with a .400 batting average and also ranks among the league leaders with eight home runs. 

3B Evan Longoria, Rays - There was no clear-cut dominant third baseman in April, but Longoria has a higher batting average than any third baseman East of Pablo Sandoval, plus more homers and RBI than the Panda and more runs scored (and stolen hats) than anyone at the hot corner.

SS Alex Gonzalez, Blue Jays - Those who say  they saw this coming are just flat-out lying. Gonzalez had an unprecedented month and currently leads all shortstops in home runs (7), RBI (19), and OPS (.946).

CI Paul Konerko, White Sox - Konerko has never had a month like this before, either. He leads the majors in home runs with 11 and leads all first basemen with a 1.197 OPS.

MI Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks - Our third straight surprising player, Johnson has already hit more homers in April (9) than he hit all of last year (8).

U Justin Morneau, Twins - With apologies to Miguel Cabrera, who leads the major leagues with 25 RBI, Morneau has a higher batting average, higher OPS, the same number of homers, and more runs scored than the Tigers slugger.

OF Ryan Braun, Brewers - An across the board stud in April, Braun ranks in the top-10 among outfielders in batting average, home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases, and OPS.

OF Vernon Wells, Blue Jays - Following a few lost years, Wells looks determined to earn the money in that fat contract of his. Wells is pacing all outfielders in homers (8) and runs scored (20).

OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers - Kemp hit "only" .278 in April, but had more home runs and runs scored than Ryan Braun and the same number of RBI.

OF Jose Guillen, Royals - One of the most surprising players of the year thus far, Guillen went from battling blood clots in his legs during the offseason to posting similar stats to Braun and Kemp in April.

SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies - All he's done so far is throw a no-hitter and win all five of his starts. Not a bad way to kick off the season.

SP Tim Lincecum, Giants - The reigning Cy Young award winner is facing some stiff competition for his crown so far, but still leads all pitchers with 43 strikeouts and has not lost a game.

SP Francisco Liriano, Twins - The magic of 2006 is back for the Twins filthy southpaw. Liriano leads the American League with a 0.93 ERA and has not allowed a run in his last 23 innings of work.

SP Mike Pelfrey, Mets - Adding a nasty split-finger fastball to his repertoire has helped Pelfrey fashion the best ERA in the majors (0.69) through the first month of the season.

SP Andy Pettitte, Yankees - Pettitte is off to the best start of his long and storied (and some would suggest Hall of Fame worthy) career: a 3-0 mark and a 2.12 ERA.

SP Matt Garza, Rays - Garza has four wins and ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. About that beard, though...

RP Matt Capps, Nationals - April baseball in a microcosm: his team was the worst in baseball last year yet he somehow leads the majors in saves (10) through one month. Weird.

RP Mariano Rivera, Yankees - Near perfection thus far. Rivera is seven-for-seven in saves, and in nine innings of work he has allowed just five base runners and ZERO runs.

Philly Mistake

I suppose you can surmise from the headline above that I am not exactly on board with the Phillies' decision to hand first baseman Ryan Howard a five-year, $125 million contract extension. Let me first say that I believe that, right now, Howard is one of the most feared hitters in the game. He is in exclusive company when it comes to hitting home runs and knocking in runs. If you have been following the story, you've probably seen the ESPN graphic by now that includes Howard on the list of four players in major league history who have slammed 40 homers and driven in 130 runs four straight seasons--a list that includes Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, and Babe Ruth.

Having said that, it seems I find myself in lockstep agreement with many analysts this morning who think the Phillies will find themselves experiencing a great deal of regret in the years to come for having signed Howard to such a lucrative extension. The $25 million guaranteed average salary in the extension will be baseball's second-highest behind Alex Rodriguez. At least until Albert Pujols gets his new deal.

Howard is 30 years old, turns 31 in November, and the fat extension doesn't even kick in until the 2012 season. My limited mathematical skills tell me Howard will be 32 at the start of the 2012 season and 36 when he enters the final year of the deal in 2016 (not including the $23 million club option for 2017). That's old by baseball slugger standards. Really old. Baseball players reach their power prime when they are 27 and remain there for a few years. In other words, he is probably already past his power peak and power is the biggest thing that Howard brings to the table, aside from being good in the room. The stats reveal that he is already slowly drifting downward from his prime seasons when he was 26 to 29 years old, and those numbers will in all likelihood continue to fall off as the years go by.

Howard strikes out a lot, hasn't hit over .280 in a full season since 2006, is a zoo (read: struggles mightily) against lefties (.219 average from 2007-09), and is already nothing more than a mediocre defensive player at one of the least demanding defensive positions on the diamond. Indeed, in a few years as big Ryan's big body starts to slow down a little more, he will likely be best suited to be a designated hitter. And unless his hefty new deal somehow includes a stipulation that forces the National League to adopt a designated hitter rule change sometime in the next few seasons, I'm afraid the Phillies won't be able to DH him outside of inter-league play.

It's a heckuva lot of money for a guy who has put up huge stats, but will likely begin slowing down soon if the history of aging baseball sluggers is any indication. I just don't understand why the Phillies didn't wait. Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau, even the aforementioned Pujols, will be free agents in the not-so-distant future and Howard's options compared to younger and/or better (Pujols) free agent first basemen would not have been so vast. Especially not at that price and not at that age.  There are only so many teams that can afford a $20-something million per year contract. And now the Phillies have two of them, including Roy Halladay, who just got paid this past offseason. Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels become free agents following the 2011 season and the Phillies best player, Chase Utley, is signed through 2013. At some point the Phillies won't be able to retain all these guys. That some point may begin this upcoming offseason when Jayson Werth becomes a free agent.

The Phillies should have waited. Howard's price tag and maybe even the length of his extension simply would not have been the same a year or two from now.